EU Referendum, a Decision without a Plan

On June 23rd the UK will vote on deciding whether to Remain within the EU under the existing treaty with all the obligations and exceptions it has negotiated or to Leave the EU and begin negotiations over what that means.

The electorate is being asked to make a policy decision with the implementation of that policy delegated to the Government with Parliament then enacting whatever is negotiated into law and repealing the laws which ratified the treaties in the first place.

In casting that vote in the referendum no one, and that is absolutely no one, knows what that negotiation and implementation will be. No one knows what laws and regulations will and will not be repealed, no one knows whether there will be less, or as a consequence, more regulation.

If anyone has made any claim as to the economic benefits or downsides of either vote as a certainty or approaching certainty then treat all those claims as opinion. No one knows any of the economic outcomes because no one knows the context, plan and detail of any implementation.

You might reasonably expect some negative results in the near term, you could in an optimistic frame of mind see that rebound and some other factor fuel the UK economy; and conversely in a more pessimistic outlook believe that the UK would sink out of the top 7 economies and begin a long decay into obscurity. Or you might suspect that whichever path is chosen it will never be clear which would have been better.

When the decision is couched in terms relating to immigration, or the more acceptable term migration, it would be wise not to expect too much too soon. Being concerned at the numbers involved and the possible impact on services and infrastructure is not in itself xenophobic, racist or right wing but when complex population change is going on be wary of simplistic statements in any direction.

There are many possible outcomes in any of the possible implementations of a Leave negotiation, there is only really one which may promise the end of the free movement of EU citizens and that is to not negotiate any treaty arrangement at all with the remaining EU members. In that case the negotiation would be on how existing EU workers in the UK would be transitioned, converted via work visas and going through an immigration process as well as all UK citizens, workers and others, within the EU going through a similar process.

Numbers can be spun in many ways which is why I’ve left them alone in this piece as I think its more about the psychology and philosophy of the decision than any claimed statistics. But in the case of migration its worth bearing in mind the other side of the equation. Depending upon whether you include the retired population abroad as well the magnitude of UK citizens working in the rest of the EU is around 2 Million in any one year. Just as in EU migrants in the UK a great many of that 2 million stay less than 3 years and rotate through a number of countries. And there is a weekly commuting population (a few of them bureaucrats), of tens of thousands (possibly much more as its unregulated), mostly commuting from the UK into northern Europe. (I used to be one of them).

Now it is possible that work visas could be negotiated which allowed nationals to be paid in their own country (including paying any taxes) and work as transient migrants in another country but it seems difficult to argue that that would be any different than a free movement of people on the basis of a treaty.

The term free movement of people needs to be teased out a little too. So long as you are self supporting, or a tourist or have a job you can move and settle freely within the UK as an EU citizen. In most if not all of the rest of the EU any resident has to register with some local authority, you can register your address in the UK if you wish but there is no necessity. If you pay council tax, register to vote (yes in most elections EU citizens that resident in the UK can vote, but not in the referendum), have any kind of contract with a service company, gas, electric, phone then you’re pretty much registered as a resident.

What you can’t do is claim benefits. You can use the National Health Service, technically applying the EHIC card rules just as a UK national would in the rest of the EU, but the NHS rarely recharges. I would imagine that as the EHIC is also part of the EEA + Switzerland treaties which underpin the EU that this would also need to be renegotiated with the 27 countries of the EU to remain on par with existing arrangements.

The hard truth is that there is no certainty if either decision is taken. But there are specific things that need to borne in mind if you want to vote Leave.

• if you want to vote Leave regardless of however the Government decides to implement leaving; go ahead but this will include the possibility of continuing to contribute; continuing with free movement; accepting all EU standards without participation.

. if you want to vote Leave for a particular implementation, say leaving the free market of the EEA completely, then you will have to both vote Leave and hope the Conservative government has an internal coup, or that Cameron resigns without an election. In that case its likely the government majority would evaporate and that there would be a General Election.

. if you want to vote Remain then do so in the knowledge that the same problems will remain as well.

The Referendum was offered by Cameron as political expediency in the last Election, mostly he hoped to buy off his own internal factions and concentrate on running the economy. Instead he’s bought himself a no win option, no one is going to be satisfied with this Referendum, especially as whatever the vote it will be close.

Along with the brochure describing in anodyne terms the pro and against arguments from the Government machine everyone should have received a pair of dice marked on all sides bar one with ‘Chaos’, and one face marked ‘By the skin of our teeth’ and encouraged to roll the dice whenever deciding.

This has not been an argument to not vote, I would urge everyone to vote regardless of why or what.

And you could probably tell but I’ve already voted and chosen Remain as I always would have and will.